Prediction Accuracy: PTI 2.0 vs 2.4

Accuracy by Season

Accuracy by Month

Accuracy by League (Top 25)

League Accuracy vs. Average PTI Spread

Dot size scaled by number of matches

League-Season Accuracy Heatmap (Top 25)

Accuracy difference (PTI 2.4 minus 2.0) in basis points

Accuracy by PTI Percentile

Lower percentile = stronger player ratings

Head-to-Head Disagreements

When PTI 2.0 and 2.4 predict different winners, who is right?

Prediction Advantage by PTI Spread

Difference in favored-team win rate (PTI 2.4 minus 2.0) by PTI spread percentile. Lower-rated team is the favorite; higher percentile = larger spread.

Accuracy by Experience Level

Accuracy by Uncertainty (Sigma) Percentile

Average pre-match sigma across 4 players. Higher percentile = more uncertain ratings.